That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament.īy-elections aren't ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority. With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope.
37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.īut while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour's favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. If Labour were to win, it would set a record. Nigel Adams's decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.Īlmost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that's how people here have voted. We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.Ī record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.
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Even the Greens managed two.Īnd you can't say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn't know how to defeat a Conservative.Īt those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ's resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome.
But they have been trending away from the Tories.
The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes, but this seat has often been competitive. Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree.įor 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.ĭavid Warburton was the winner then, and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history, overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton - and now they're back in Somerton and Frome. In the West Country, the Conservatives face a feeling of deja vu. By Dr Hannah Bunting and Professor Will Jennings, Sky election analysts
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